A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
